Auto\Truck Manufacturing Short Interest
Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Matthew Unterman
Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
The United Auto Workers went on strike today with 13,000 union members walked out of three Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis auto plants. Auto workers are looking for a 36% pay raise, reinstatement of cost-of living adjustments, and a four-day work week.
The Ford Motor Co (F US) is the most shorted stock of the Big 3, in third place but a mere glimmer in Tesla Inc’s rear-view mirror. The largest shorts in the U.S. auto\Truck manufacturing sector are:
US Auto\Truck Manuf. Short Interest
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
TESLA INC
TSLA
2.86%
$21,797,821,567
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC
RIVN
13.16%
$2,097,492,710
FORD MOTOR CO
F
3.81%
$1,887,097,563
CATERPILLAR INC
CAT
1.29%
$1,849,993,599
LI AUTO INC ADR
LI
3.63%
$1,273,626,652
LUCID GROUP INC
LCID
22.85%
$1,172,412,445
GENERAL MOTORS CO
GM
2.39%
$1,102,161,350
NIO INC ADR
NIO
6.42%
$1,046,305,765
XPENG INC ADR
XPEV
6.90%
$852,083,924
STELLANTIS NV
STLA
1.58%
$646,594,038
PACCAR INC
PCAR
1.42%
$626,900,450
FERRARI NV
RACE
1.50%
$593,918,636
FISKER INC
FSR
42.94%
$547,688,648
THOR INDUSTRIES INC
THO
9.63%
$487,346,430
CUMMINS INC
CMI
1.30%
$427,507,566
WINNEBAGO INDS
WGO
21.10%
$388,916,528
WABTEC CORP
WAB
1.03%
$197,827,986
NIKOLA CORP
NKLA
20.96%
$172,744,162
WABASH NATL CORP
WNC
16.12%
$161,480,956
TEREX CORP
TEX
4.13%
$160,365,133
Total Auto & Truck Short Interest
5.13%
$38,463,031,160
Over the last thirty days we saw $473 million of short covering in the Auto\Truck Manufacturing sector. But TSLA has skewed the overall short selling\covering activity in the sector with $772 million of short covering. Excluding TSLA, there was $299 million of new short selling in the sector. STLA and GM had increased short selling while F had increased short covering.
Auto\Truck Manufacturing stocks with the most short selling over the last thirty days are:
US Auto\Truck Manuf. Short Selling
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Ch Shs Shorted
LI AUTO INC ADR
LI
3.63%
$1,273,626,652
$194,620,117
STELLANTIS NV
STLA
1.58%
$646,594,038
$69,429,771
XPENG INC ADR
XPEV
6.90%
$852,083,924
$60,545,036
NIO INC ADR
NIO
6.42%
$1,046,305,765
$49,988,388
THOR INDUSTRIES INC
THO
9.63%
$487,346,430
$49,287,156
GENERAL MOTORS CO
GM
2.39%
$1,102,161,350
$45,620,206
PACCAR INC
PCAR
1.42%
$626,900,450
$42,149,118
VINFAST AUTO LTD
VFS
21.79%
$26,012,740
$24,946,897
OSHKOSH CORP
OSK
1.88%
$121,972,048
$24,515,737
LUCID GROUP INC
LCID
22.85%
$1,172,412,445
$21,701,497
Auto\Truck Manufacturing stocks with the most short covering over the last thirty days are:
US Auto\Truck Manuf. Short Covering
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Ch Shs Shorted
TESLA INC
TSLA
2.86%
$21,797,821,567
($772,229,629)
CATERPILLAR INC
CAT
1.29%
$1,849,993,599
($107,165,684)
FORD MOTOR CO
F
3.81%
$1,887,097,563
($88,953,231)
TEREX CORP
TEX
4.13%
$160,365,133
($57,862,072)
CUMMINS INC
CMI
1.30%
$427,507,566
($34,962,215)
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC
RIVN
13.16%
$2,097,492,710
($24,128,131)
NFI GROUP INC
NFI
2.10%
$14,998,065
($24,126,450)
NIKOLA CORP
NKLA
20.96%
$172,744,162
($8,608,368)
FERRARI NV
RACE
1.50%
$593,918,636
($5,338,191)
WINNEBAGO INDS
WGO
21.10%
$388,916,528
($4,899,718)
Total Auto & Truck Short Interest
5.13%
$38,463,031,160
($473,370,809)
Shorting the Auto\Truck Manufacturing sector was a decidedly unprofitable trade in 2023, underperforming the S&P 500 by over three to one. Auto\Truck Manufacturing short sellers were down -52.41% in year-to-date mark-to-market losses versus the S&P 500 up +15.91%. The most profitable shots in the sector are (GM comes in at #14):
Most Profitable YTD Auto\Truck Manuf. Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT ELECTRIC INC
FFIE
$54,139,628
$89,870,903
166.00%
MULLEN AUTOMOTIVE INC
MULN
$30,224,413
$89,551,637
296.29%
NIKOLA CORP
NKLA
$193,167,787
$62,700,093
32.46%
PROTERRA INC
PTRAQ
$27,509,974
$54,327,897
197.48%
LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP
RIDEQ
$20,902,223
$35,351,370
169.13%
WORKHORSE GROUP INC
WKHS
$54,336,060
$34,435,262
63.37%
CANOO INC
GOEV
$40,819,237
$24,709,476
60.53%
VINFAST AUTO LTD
VFS
$2,979,657
$16,616,335
557.66%
WABASH NATL CORP
WNC
$126,046,922
$15,856,030
12.58%
TRINITY INDUSTRIES
TRN
$45,207,219
$12,341,709
27.30%
GENERAL MOTORS CO
GM
$1,033,023,210
$6,116,308
0.59%
The least profitable shots in the sector are (F is #6 & STLA is #11):
Least Profitable YTD Auto\Truck Manuf. Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
TESLA INC
TSLA
$18,188,124,626
($14,351,643,940)
-78.91%
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC
RIVN
$1,258,117,880
($707,221,417)
-56.21%
LI AUTO INC ADR
LI
$900,499,539
($603,482,110)
-67.02%
XPENG INC ADR
XPEV
$534,422,000
($459,373,073)
-85.96%
CATERPILLAR INC
CAT
$1,771,351,820
($308,243,080)
-17.40%
FORD MOTOR CO
F
$1,974,045,225
($198,379,171)
-10.05%
PACCAR INC
PCAR
$611,575,305
($184,086,777)
-30.10%
THOR INDUSTRIES INC
THO
$525,338,855
($176,062,803)
-33.51%
FERRARI NV
RACE
$553,161,948
($169,247,549)
-30.60%
NIO INC ADR
NIO
$994,839,232
($166,303,081)
-16.72%
STELLANTIS NV
STLA
$421,397,951
($92,707,796)
-22.00%
Total Auto\Truck Manuf YTD MTM P\L
$33,157,602,552
($17,377,386,517)
-52.41%
Auto\Truck Manufacturing sector short sellers also underperformed in the third quarter by more than four times with a -5.38% return versus the S&P 500 up +1.23%. The most profitable shots in the sector are (F took the top spot and GM came in third):
Most Profitable 3rd Qtr. Auto\Truck Manuf. Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
3rd Qtr. MTM P\L
P\L %
FORD MOTOR CO
F
$2,006,022,892
$368,265,108
18.36%
LUCID GROUP INC
LCID
$1,230,536,910
$168,275,134
13.67%
GENERAL MOTORS CO
GM
$1,127,049,753
$130,990,586
11.62%
FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT ELECTRIC
FFIE
$56,429,400
$45,394,177
80.44%
FERRARI NV
RACE
$589,878,614
$41,699,754
7.07%
WABASH NATL CORP
WNC
$165,166,173
$27,681,128
16.76%
PROTERRA INC
PTRAQ
$14,277,353
$22,424,922
157.07%
WINNEBAGO INDS
WGO
$411,555,438
$21,507,781
5.23%
VINFAST AUTO LTD
VFS
$9,768,218
$16,621,399
170.16%
NIKOLA CORP
NKLA
$250,515,693
$13,939,215
5.56%
The least profitable shots in the sector for the third quarter are (STLA is #8):
Least Profitable 3rd Qtr. Auto\Truck Manuf. Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
3rd Qtr. MTM P\L
P\L %
TESLA INC
TSLA
$21,923,950,087
($1,334,229,370)
-6.09%
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC
RIVN
$2,051,707,063
($650,797,391)
-31.72%
XPENG INC ADR
XPEV
$746,810,687
($265,211,547)
-35.51%
CATERPILLAR INC
CAT
$1,828,808,300
($246,603,930)
-13.48%
LI AUTO INC ADR
LI
$1,141,172,462
($162,559,787)
-14.24%
NIO INC ADR
NIO
$1,203,838,749
($146,365,307)
-12.16%
FISKER INC
FSR
$484,196,697
($96,677,217)
-19.97%
STELLANTIS NV
STLA
$488,155,382
($30,510,119)
-6.25%
PACCAR INC
PCAR
$661,139,216
($21,037,559)
-3.18%
TOYOTA MOTOR ADR
TM
$138,319,076
($19,917,684)
-14.40%
Total Auto\Truck Manuf 3rd Qtr. MTM P\L
$38,827,670,190
($2,088,684,194)
-5.38%
The length and severity of the UAW strike will be the driving force behind increased short selling in the Big 3. With trading liquidity, ample stock borrow supply and stock borrow rates at General Collateral levels (the cheapest stock borrow costs for the easiest to borrow stocks) there are no systemic headwinds for shorting these stocks. We should expect short selling to ramp up as the strike continues and Auto\Truck inventory is affected.
Short selling will help grease the skids for downward stock price movement but once the strike is settled, we should expect a flood of buy-to-covers as auto\truck production returns to normal levels. Timing will be paramount to maximize short-side profits and minimizing trade exit risk.
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