Crypto Stock Short Recap

Author:

Ihor Dusaniwsky

Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

Matthew Unterman

Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

December 5, 2023

The price of Bitcoin has increased by +139% this year and +58% since its recent low on 9/11/23. Crypto stocks have been rallying along with the crypto-currencies and short sellers have incurred large mark-to-market losses on the strength of the sector. We are tracking eleven U.S. crypto stocks with active shares shorted in our Blacklight SaaS platform and Black App in the crypto stock sector with $6.88 billion of short interest. Average Short Interest % of Float for these stocks is 18.12% with an average stock borrow fee of 9.19%. As a comparison, U.S. equities have an average SI % Float of 5.00% and average stock borrow fee of 0.60%.

Crypto Stock Short Interest

Ticker

SI % Float

Stock Borrow Fee

Short Interest

Coinbase Global Inc

COIN

14.97%

0.30

$3,538,414,170

MicroStrategy Inc

MSTR

22.81%

0.57

$1,748,373,995

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA

23.55%

0.82

$757,302,319

Riot Platforms Inc

RIOT

18.34%

0.45

$539,481,825

Cleanspark Inc

CLSK

10.13%

0.30

$157,831,594

Hut 8 Corp

HUT

10.66%

10.57

$10,675,118

Terawulf Inc

WULF

20.14%

3.57

$44,094,974

Bit Digital Inc

BTBT

15.75%

4.57

$42,242,526

Cipher Mining Inc

CIFR

22.35%

21.32

$35,702,019

Bitdeer Technologies Group

BTDR

4.25%

39.82

$4,804,788

Bitcoin Depot Inc

BTM

5.49%

18.82

$492,348

Total Crypto Stocks

18.12%

9.19

$6,879,415,676

We saw $2.19 billion of short covering throughout 2023 as short sellers reduced their crypto stock exposure in the first three-quarters of the year as the sector rallied and the mark-to-market value of the shorted securities increased. But since Bitcoin’s recent low on 9/11/23 we have seen $697 million of new short selling as short sellers increased their exposure in what they thought was an overbought sector. The majority of nine months of short covering and recent short selling occurred in Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) and MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR).

Crypto Stock Shares Shorted

Ticker

Short Interest

YTD Shs Shorted

9/11 Shs Shorted

Coinbase Global Inc

COIN

$3,538,414,170

($2,363,203,886)

$352,132,281

MicroStrategy Inc

MSTR

$1,748,373,995

($170,884,891)

$209,086,977

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA

$757,302,319

$105,251,835

($15,614,829)

Riot Platforms Inc

RIOT

$539,481,825

$87,158,745

$83,039,295

Cleanspark Inc

CLSK

$157,831,594

$72,562,180

$71,199,314

Hut 8 Corp

HUT

$10,675,118

($15,351,749)

($25,863,976)

Terawulf Inc

WULF

$44,094,974

$40,504,030

$13,600,562

Bit Digital Inc

BTBT

$42,242,526

$27,274,702

$7,171,976

Cipher Mining Inc

CIFR

$35,702,019

$21,746,875

($1,761,185)

Bitdeer Technologies Group

BTDR

$4,804,788

$4,792,036

$4,340,815

Bitcoin Depot Inc

BTM

$492,348

$415,439

$158,225

Total Crypto Stocks

$6,879,415,676

($2,189,734,684)

$697,489,455

Crypto stock short sellers are down -$6.05 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market losses, down -61.80%, with over half those losses in Coinbase Global Inc (COIN). Since Bitcoin’s recent low on 9/11/23 crypto stock short sellers are down -$2.66 billion in mark-to-market losses, down -148.23%.

Crypto Stocks MTM P\L

Ticker

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

9/11 MTM P\L

P\L %

Coinbase Global Inc

COIN

($3,542,377,758)

-160.51%

($1,488,383,718)

-72.50%

MicroStrategy Inc

MSTR

($1,393,988,313)

-145.03%

($665,891,650)

-56.02%

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA

($569,131,356)

-124.55%

($252,880,476)

-51.50%

Riot Platforms Inc

RIOT

($409,323,033)

-130.42%

($184,258,822)

-50.58%

Cleanspark Inc

CLSK

($105,589,641)

-268.84%

($82,858,736)

-137.44%

Hut 8 Corp

HUT

$15,902,278

50.06%

$36,753,657

81.28%

Terawulf Inc

WULF

($914,112)

-4.56%

$32,467

0.11%

Bit Digital Inc

BTBT

($22,690,927)

-95.00%

($14,645,477)

-54.92%

Cipher Mining Inc

CIFR

($21,728,403)

-85.34%

($4,565,982)

-12.76%

Bitdeer Technologies Group

BTDR

$450,199

42.82%

$826,096

29.75%

Bitcoin Depot Inc

BTM

$312,854

95.41%

$50,605

9.82%

Total Crypto Stocks

($6,049,078,212)

-61.80%

($2,655,822,036)

-148.23%

Crypto stock short sellers were down -$387 million in mark-to-market losses, -5.78%, yesterday.

Crypto Stocks MTM P\L

Ticker

12/4/23 MTM P\L

P\L %

Coinbase Global Inc

COIN

($182,916,796)

-5.32%

MicroStrategy Inc

MSTR

($110,378,748)

-6.50%

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA

($59,149,699)

-8.11%

Riot Platforms Inc

RIOT

($44,250,462)

-8.54%

Cleanspark Inc

CLSK

($21,760,076)

-14.85%

Hut 8 Corp

HUT

$41,901,668

132.86%

Terawulf Inc

WULF

($4,875,938)

-11.64%

Bit Digital Inc

BTBT

($4,255,570)

-10.63%

Cipher Mining Inc

CIFR

($628,928)

-1.79%

Bitdeer Technologies Group

BTDR

($282,578)

-5.87%

Bitcoin Depot Inc

BTM

($30,115)

-6.46%

Total Crypto Stocks

($386,627,242)

-5.78%

Crypto stocks have been consistently crowded shorts with an average 59.06 Crowded score on 9/11/23 and a slightly higher crowded score of 60.50 presently. The average U.S. crowded score is much lower at 32.89.

Crypto Stocks Crowded Score

Ticker

Crowded Score

Coinbase Global Inc

COIN

57.50

MicroStrategy Inc

MSTR

67.50

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA

70.00

Riot Platforms Inc

RIOT

55.00

Cleanspark Inc

CLSK

27.50

Hut 8 Corp

HUT

45.00

Terawulf Inc

WULF

57.50

Bit Digital Inc

BTBT

50.00

Cipher Mining Inc

CIFR

67.50

Bitdeer Technologies Group

BTDR

27.50

Bitcoin Depot Inc

BTM

30.00

Crypto Stocks Crowded Avg

60.50

9/11 Crowded Avg

59.06

U.S. Crowded Avg

32.89

But the average squeeze score for crypto stocks has increased dramatically from 50.30 on 9/11/23 to 95.78 today. The average U.S. squeeze score is 38.19.

Crypto Stocks Squeeze Score

Ticker

Squeeze Score

Coinbase Global Inc

COIN

100.00

MicroStrategy Inc

MSTR

87.50

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA

100.00

Riot Platforms Inc

RIOT

95.00

Cleanspark Inc

CLSK

87.50

Hut 8 Corp

HUT

0.00

Terawulf Inc

WULF

97.50

Bit Digital Inc

BTBT

100.00

Cipher Mining Inc

CIFR

67.50

Bitdeer Technologies Group

BTDR

67.50

Bitcoin Depot Inc

BTM

20.00

Crypto Stocks Squeeze Avg

95.78

9/11 Squeeze Avg

50.30

U.S. Squeeze Avg

38.19

With squeezes score over 90 for most of the most shorted crypto stocks, the sector is poised for a surge in short-squeeze based short covering.

Mark-to-market losses in crypto stocks continue to increase as crypto currency prices rally, which should lead to a reversal of the recent short selling we have been seeing in the sector. Buying-to-cover in the most shorted crypto stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) will help push stock prices higher along with the long buying that has driven up stock prices since the end of October.

Investors looking for crypto exposure can now pick between the actual crypto-currencies or crypto stocks – if the recent momentum continues, both look to outperform the market.

Looking at short selling trends over time provides insight into overall market sentiment as well as the strength of bearish conviction in individual equities. Our Blacklight SaaS platform and Black APP provides an up-to-date view of short selling and short covering on an equity, sector, index, or country-wide basis allowing investors\traders to better manage their existing long and short positions.

Our Blacklight SaaS platform and Black App provides an up-to-date view of short selling and short covering on an equity, sector, index, or country-wide basis allowing investors\traders to better manage their existing long and short positions.

The Black MaP and Black App products provide a total view of long and short positioning in the market with a breakdown between Active\Passive long investors, 24 Fund type entities, over 50k securities globally across 108 countries and data from 58 regulatory exchanges.

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