Green\Renewable Short Selling a Post-Trump Win
Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
President Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election will bring about changes, and possibly reversals, of public and governmental policies in 2025. One of the primary targets will be the Inflation Reduction Act and the subsidies for green energy and its infrastructure. We have combed through multiple green and renewable energy themed ETFs and Funds to create a list of twenty of the most held stocks. Total short interest in these stocks is $6.6 billion.
Renewables Short Interest
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
11.64%
$1,362,811,713
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
5.24%
$1,146,949,520
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
20.48%
$752,073,180
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
9.29%
$570,281,840
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
11.29%
$454,315,766
Arcadium Lithium PLC
ALTM US
7.24%
$408,088,599
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
29.98%
$320,282,774
Ormat Technologies Inc
ORA US
5.17%
$255,057,260
Fluence Energy Inc
FLNC US
15.33%
$253,011,875
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
20.71%
$235,430,471
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
30.05%
$230,454,483
Eos Energy Enterprises Inc
EOSE US
27.05%
$180,969,536
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
10.23%
$103,661,921
NextEra Energy Partners LP
NEP US
5.29%
$99,412,096
American Superconductor Corp
AMSC US
8.19%
$88,457,648
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
3.00%
$69,541,344
ReNew Energy Global PLC
RNW US
4.29%
$38,064,456
Altus Power Inc
AMPS US
10.17%
$33,978,189
TPI Composites Inc
TPIC US
14.35%
$23,457,918
Montauk Renewables Inc
MNTK US
3.85%
$10,170,367
Total Sector
12.89%
$6,636,470,955
There has been consistent short selling in these green\renewable energy stocks thought the year with a total of $1.16 billion of new short selling in 2024 and $179 million of new short selling over the last thirty days. Short sellers were especially active in Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) with $472 million of short selling in 2024 and $102 million over the last thirty days.
Renewables Short Interest
Ticker
Short Interest
30D Shares Shorted
YTD Shares Shorted
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
$1,362,811,713
$101,996,097
$471,972,652
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
$1,146,949,520
$89,060,238
$284,435,075
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
$752,073,180
($19,257,412)
$154,370,663
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
$570,281,840
($4,469,536)
$186,570,186
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
$454,315,766
$12,072,675
($136,344,817)
Arcadium Lithium PLC
ALTM US
$408,088,599
($33,802,780)
($68,883,111)
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
$320,282,774
$9,997,175
$170,100,671
Ormat Technologies Inc
ORA US
$255,057,260
$5,853,727
($86,246,796)
Fluence Energy Inc
FLNC US
$253,011,875
$5,608,273
$95,940,000
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
$235,430,471
($11,419,810)
$68,505,159
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
$230,454,483
($28,357,457)
($29,267,604)
Eos Energy Enterprises Inc
EOSE US
$180,969,536
$5,565,308
$47,859,890
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
$103,661,921
$1,565,282
($55,397,849)
NextEra Energy Partners LP
NEP US
$99,412,096
$29,168,305
$43,165,450
American Superconductor Corp
AMSC US
$88,457,648
$6,734,742
$47,093,830
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
$69,541,344
$7,227,608
($52,069,064)
ReNew Energy Global PLC
RNW US
$38,064,456
($545,284)
$13,773,371
Altus Power Inc
AMPS US
$33,978,189
$941,919
$7,275,709
TPI Composites Inc
TPIC US
$23,457,918
$832,558
($3,218,774)
Montauk Renewables Inc
MNTK US
$10,170,367
($90,666)
($2,838,443)
Total Sector
$6,636,470,955
$178,680,964
$1,156,796,200
These stocks are a Crowded short in aggregate with a 46.60 average Crowded score versus the U.S. average of 33.75. Eos Energy (EOSE) is the most Crowded stock in the group followed by SunRun (RUN), SolarEdge Tech (ORA) and Sunnova Energy (NOVA).
Crowded Scores
Ticker
Crowded Score
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
47.50
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
27.50
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
67.50
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
40.00
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
55.00
Arcadium Lithium PLC
ALTM US
27.50
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
67.50
Ormat Technologies Inc
ORA US
32.50
Fluence Energy Inc
FLNC US
60.00
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
62.50
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
65.00
Eos Energy Enterprises Inc
EOSE US
82.50
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
37.50
NextEra Energy Partners LP
NEP US
22.50
American Superconductor Corp
AMSC US
25.00
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
10.00
ReNew Energy Global PLC
RNW US
32.50
Altus Power Inc
AMPS US
45.00
TPI Composites Inc
TPIC US
57.50
Montauk Renewables Inc
MNTK US
32.50
Total Sector
46.60
U.S. Average
33.75
Shorting these stocks has been a profitable trade in 2024 but especially profitable today. Green\renewable energy short sellers are up +$946 million in mid-day mark-to-market profits, up +14.3%. Today’s trading bumps year-to-date mark-to-market profits to +$2.56 billion, up +40.7% for the year.
Mark-To-Market P\L
Ticker
DAY MTM P\L
P\L %
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
$214,861,798
15.77%
$719,888,785
51.81%
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
$106,332,830
9.27%
($143,416,273)
-14.81%
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
$220,373,898
29.30%
$192,014,176
27.97%
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
$38,415,447
6.74%
$88,590,674
20.05%
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
$43,912,040
9.67%
($61,684,648)
-14.87%
Arcadium Lithium PLC
ALTM US
$1,871,966
0.46%
$37,517,163
12.68%
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
$60,763,770
18.97%
$822,005,621
168.55%
Ormat Technologies Inc
ORA US
($623,155)
-0.24%
($5,378,384)
-2.44%
Fluence Energy Inc
FLNC US
$32,021,463
12.66%
$6,611,714
3.17%
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
$46,560,165
19.78%
$258,365,909
89.26%
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
$117,022,567
50.78%
$417,538,514
155.11%
Eos Energy Enterprises Inc
EOSE US
$33,007,022
18.24%
($79,810,286)
-104.50%
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
$5,571,406
5.37%
$239,851,472
114.79%
NextEra Energy Partners LP
NEP US
$10,436,587
10.50%
$40,911,747
34.02%
American Superconductor Corp
AMSC US
($15,411)
-0.02%
($33,074,593)
-77.95%
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
$5,340,041
7.68%
$5,728,200
8.25%
ReNew Energy Global PLC
RNW US
$1,074,129
2.82%
$11,079,374
32.33%
Altus Power Inc
AMPS US
$4,142,546
12.19%
$28,886,949
82.73%
TPI Composites Inc
TPIC US
$5,502,863
23.46%
$6,996,115
28.85%
Montauk Renewables Inc
MNTK US
($245,916)
-2.42%
$7,225,690
68.92%
Total Sector
$946,326,056
14.26%
$2,559,847,919
40.67%
We should see increased short selling in this sector as President Trump’s agenda gets fleshed out over the next several months. If there are going to be significant cutbacks in the Inflation Reduction Act, and subsidies to this sector are throttled, we should expect reduced growth and expansion in these stocks along with reduced future revenues and earnings expectations. Long carbon and short green may be a profitable pairs trade for both the short term and long term under President’s Trump’s second administration.
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