Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Matthew Unterman
Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Tesla Inc’s (TSLA) stock price has slid over 60% in 2022 and its stock price hit a new 52-week low yesterday and a level we have not seen since November 2020. Tesla’s short interest has been declining since April due its share price decline, but we have seen increased short selling since August. TSLA short interest is $11.28 billion, 81.84 million shares shorted, 3.05% SI % Float, 2.96% S3 SI % Float (which includes the synthetic longs created by every short sale in the trade float denominator) and a stock borrow fee of 0.30% (General Collateral).
TSLA continues to be the second largest U.S. short behind Apple Inc (AAPL).
Name
Ticker
SI % Float
S3 SI % Float
Fee
Short Interest
APPLE INC
AAPL
0.80%
0.79%
0.30%
$16,783,131,488
TESLA INC
TSLA
3.05%
2.96%
0.30%
$11,277,389,672
MICROSOFT CORP
MSFT
0.61%
0.61%
0.30%
$10,877,002,079
VISA INC
V
2.32%
2.27%
0.30%
$7,745,958,643
ALIBABA GROUP ADR
BABA
2.73%
2.66%
0.30%
$6,184,941,319
AMAZON.COM INC
AMZN
0.77%
0.77%
0.30%
$5,844,966,916
NVIDIA CORP
NVDA
1.45%
1.43%
0.30%
$5,487,174,812
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM
1.20%
1.19%
0.30%
$5,276,948,533
META PLATFORMS INC
META
1.74%
1.71%
0.30%
$4,544,803,270
ALPHABET INC - A
GOOGL
0.86%
0.85%
0.30%
$4,534,929,213
IBM CORP
IBM
3.32%
3.22%
0.30%
$4,240,568,224
HOME DEPOT INC
HD
1.25%
1.23%
0.30%
$3,992,805,917
CHEVRON CORP
CVX
1.20%
1.18%
0.30%
$3,990,749,558
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
TXN
2.53%
2.47%
0.30%
$3,804,366,855
OCCIDENTAL PETRO
OXY
6.36%
5.98%
0.30%
$3,596,657,484
MODERNA INC
MRNA
4.96%
4.73%
0.30%
$3,336,286,476
NETFLIX INC
NFLX
2.64%
2.57%
0.30%
$3,330,406,927
PFIZER INC
PFE
1.14%
1.13%
0.30%
$3,284,617,846
PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC
PANW
6.80%
6.36%
0.30%
$3,007,393,950
ALPHABET INC - C
GOOG
0.62%
0.62%
0.30%
$2,943,286,253
JPMORGAN CHASE CO
JPM
0.77%
0.76%
0.30%
$2,909,631,322
LOWES COS INC
LOW
2.24%
2.19%
0.30%
$2,723,530,842
BROADCOM INC
AVGO
1.22%
1.20%
0.30%
$2,700,575,666
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS
CHTR
8.08%
7.48%
0.30%
$2,696,962,716
AMGEN INC
AMGN
1.88%
1.84%
0.30%
$2,646,144,480
Total U.S. Short Interest
-
4.67%
4.22%
0.62%
$884,144,164,960
We have seen increased short selling in TSLA since the end of August.
We have seen 14.21 million shares of new short selling, worth $1.96 billion, in 2022. This is a 31.0% increased in total TSLA shares shorted as its stock price declined by 61.4%. Over the last month we saw a resurgence of short selling after a slight lull in November with 3.78 million new shares shorted, worth $520 million. This was a 4.8% increase in total shares shorted as TSLA’s stock price fell -23.5%. Since Elon Musk announced his Twitter bid on April 14 short sellers have hit overdrive with 8.18 million shares of additional short selling, worth $1.13 billion. An increase of 11.1% in total shares shorted as TSLA’s stock price fell 58.0%.
Tesla has had the ninthlargest increase in shares shorted over the last 30 days:
Name
Ticker
SI % Float
S3 SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Change Shares Shorted
MICROSOFT CORP
MSFT
0.61%
0.61%
$10,877,002,079
$2,147,526,389
APPLE INC
AAPL
0.80%
0.79%
$16,783,131,488
$1,260,839,242
SUNCOR ENERGY
SU
6.31%
5.94%
$2,575,608,284
$925,572,061
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM
1.20%
1.19%
$5,276,948,533
$755,348,983
HOME DEPOT INC
HD
1.25%
1.23%
$3,992,805,917
$667,608,145
CHEVRON CORP
CVX
1.20%
1.18%
$3,990,749,558
$626,562,967
S&P GLOBAL INC
SPGI
1.92%
1.88%
$2,075,779,494
$552,471,295
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD
CNQ
2.74%
2.67%
$1,667,977,241
$536,741,879
TESLA INC
TSLA
3.05%
2.96%
$11,277,389,672
$520,370,557
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
TXN
2.53%
2.47%
$3,804,366,855
$457,956,469
While the U.S. stocks that had the most short covering over the last 30 days are:
Name
Ticker
SI % Float
S3 SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Change Shares Shorted
ENBRIDGE INC
ENB
1.53%
1.51%
$1,193,626,862
-$1,972,766,152
AMAZON.COM INC
AMZN
0.77%
0.77%
$5,844,966,916
-$743,404,231
BANK OF AMERICA
BAC
0.50%
0.50%
$1,283,430,140
-$850,617,660
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES
AMD
1.85%
1.82%
$1,927,496,030
-$448,178,498
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC
FANG
4.80%
4.58%
$1,078,355,927
-$458,362,033
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP
GS
1.68%
1.65%
$1,947,887,701
-$422,806,357
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA
RY
1.08%
1.06%
$1,396,194,719
-$515,381,801
VISA INC
V
2.32%
2.27%
$7,745,958,643
-$335,446,730
CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS
CRWD
3.11%
3.02%
$733,386,530
-$253,341,676
BANK OF MONTREAL
BMO
1.54%
1.52%
$930,275,205
-$371,973,244
Short sellers have been backing up their TSLA short exposure for good reason, it is the most profitable short, in dollar value, of 2022. TSLA shorts are up +$15.03 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market profits in 2022, up +78.1% on an average short internet of $19.25 billion. In December, TSLA shorts are up $4.54 billion in month-to-date mark-to-market profits, up +33.2% on an average short interest of $13.67 billion. Since Elon Musk’s Twitter bid on 4/14/22, TSLA shorts are up $13.74 billion in mark-to-market profits, up 77.5% on an average short internet of $17.74 billion.
The most profitable shorts, in dollar terms, for 2022 are:
Name
Ticker
Avg Fee
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
TESLA INC
TSLA
0.33%
$19,251,601,086
$15,031,445,347
78.08%
AMAZON.COM INC
AMZN
0.30%
$10,137,880,102
$6,247,231,206
61.62%
META PLATFORMS INC
META
0.30%
$5,294,744,025
$5,663,514,753
106.96%
APPLE INC
AAPL
0.30%
$16,879,400,734
$5,090,383,084
30.16%
CARVANA CO
CVNA
1.54%
$1,177,205,230
$4,352,987,629
369.77%
BLOCK INC
SQ
0.30%
$3,387,272,822
$4,223,237,663
124.68%
MICROSOFT CORP
MSFT
0.30%
$10,611,378,376
$3,852,619,242
36.31%
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES
AMD
0.30%
$3,805,833,315
$3,570,087,963
93.81%
SEA LTD ADR
SE
0.30%
$1,887,844,382
$3,465,601,081
183.57%
NVIDIA CORP
NVDA
0.30%
$5,525,516,066
$3,360,890,926
60.82%
LUCID GROUP INC
LCID
10.86%
$2,275,231,027
$3,110,375,754
136.71%
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC
RIVN
1.68%
$1,756,406,358
$2,960,495,767
168.55%
SHOPIFY INC
SHOP
0.30%
$1,835,277,887
$2,935,872,408
159.97%
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS
CHTR
0.30%
$4,026,606,131
$2,909,865,673
72.27%
WAYFAIR INC
W
0.50%
$1,421,285,478
$2,828,993,144
199.04%
ALPHABET INC - A
GOOGL
0.30%
$5,588,735,765
$2,637,311,749
47.19%
NETFLIX INC
NFLX
0.30%
$2,969,778,863
$2,348,581,175
79.08%
PAYPAL HLDGS INC
PYPL
0.30%
$2,133,642,513
$2,317,298,481
108.61%
S&P GLOBAL INC
SPGI
0.30%
$4,191,470,433
$2,274,231,682
54.26%
COINBASE GLOBAL INC
COIN
2.21%
$1,570,498,658
$2,230,599,545
142.03%
And the least profitable shorts, in dollar terms, for 2022 are:
Name
Ticker
Avg Fee
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM
0.30%
$3,666,708,098
($1,675,388,764)
-45.69%
OCCIDENTAL PETRO
OXY
0.30%
$3,210,797,207
($1,232,797,807)
-38.40%
CHEVRON CORP
CVX
0.30%
$3,414,298,101
($1,131,168,265)
-33.13%
AMGEN INC
AMGN
0.30%
$4,069,537,968
($885,943,067)
-21.77%
MARATHON PETRO
MPC
0.30%
$1,451,498,880
($721,777,874)
-49.73%
CONOCOPHILLIPS
COP
0.30%
$1,602,691,465
($676,942,273)
-42.24%
MERCK & CO
MRK
0.30%
$1,752,950,761
($636,885,025)
-36.33%
PINDUODUO INC ADR
PDD
0.30%
$1,180,624,341
($628,669,066)
-53.25%
SLB
SLB
0.30%
$1,009,826,854
($608,058,848)
-60.21%
BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB
BMY
0.30%
$2,411,809,421
($538,277,056)
-22.32%
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP
CHK
0.30%
$1,342,983,680
($531,670,592)
-39.59%
ENPHASE ENERGY
ENPH
0.30%
$976,641,355
($530,542,756)
-54.32%
ELI LILLY & CO
LLY
0.30%
$1,676,280,639
($519,538,330)
-30.99%
TWITTER INC ACQUIRED
N.A.
0.34%
$1,345,925,126
($501,563,117)
-37.27%
VALERO ENERGY CORP
VLO
0.30%
$1,107,741,975
($475,825,872)
-42.95%
MCKESSON CORP
MCK
0.30%
$984,552,693
($434,673,238)
-44.15%
ABBVIE INC
ABBV
0.30%
$2,049,234,384
($418,261,139)
-20.41%
CIGNA CORP
CI
0.30%
$1,062,457,783
($413,549,393)
-38.92%
TMOBILE US INC
TMUS
0.30%
$2,081,298,437
($405,677,673)
-19.49%
ANTERO RESOURCES
AR
0.30%
$747,990,383
($402,067,210)
-53.75%
One of the underlying reasons for TSLA’s price volatility is the makeup of its long shareholders. In addition to having the largest S3 SI % Float of the top three most shorted stocks, TSLA also has the least amount of “passive” institutional long shareholders of the three.
Using the S3 MaP product, which looks market structure, portfolio comparison, holder analytics and security analytics on the long side of the market we can look at the makeup of reported passive long holdings. TSLA ranks 192 in percentage of passive shareholders versus Float for Mega, Large and Mid-Cap stocks.
Rank
Largest Passive Long Shareholders
Ticker
Short Interest ($millions)
S3 SI % Float
Passive Holdings %
1
VICI PROPERTIES INC
VICI
$ 1,384.03
4.17%
81.03%
2
AMPHENOL CORP
APH
$ 380.12
0.84%
77.99%
3
ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ROP
$ 455.57
1.01%
77.04%
4
MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC
MCHP
$ 1,061.57
2.69%
75.05%
5
EQUINIX INC
EQIX
$ 1,226.64
2.00%
73.99%
153
MICROSOFT CORP
MSFT
$ 10,877.00
0.61%
56.76%
181
APPLE INC
AAPL
$ 16,783.13
0.79%
49.55%
192
TESLA INC
TSLA
$ 11,277.39
2.96%
36.01%
We characterize Investment Advisors, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Insiders as more “passive” long shareholders while characterizing Hedge Funds (Fundamental, Quant, Multi-Strat, Event Driven, Tech, etc.) and Retail as more “active” long shareholders. The greater the percentage of active long shareholders the more trading volatility and price volatility in a stock.