Happy Holidays for TSLA Shorts

Author:

Ihor Dusaniwsky

Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

Matthew Unterman

Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

December 21, 2022

Tesla Inc’s (TSLA) stock price has slid over 60% in 2022 and its stock price hit a new 52-week low yesterday and a level we have not seen since November 2020. Tesla’s short interest has been declining since April due its share price decline, but we have seen increased short selling since August. TSLA short interest is $11.28 billion, 81.84 million shares shorted, 3.05% SI % Float, 2.96% S3 SI % Float (which includes the synthetic longs created by every short sale in the trade float denominator) and a stock borrow fee of 0.30% (General Collateral).

TSLA continues to be the second largest U.S. short behind Apple Inc (AAPL).

Name

Ticker

SI % Float

S3 SI % Float

Fee

Short Interest

APPLE INC

AAPL

0.80%

0.79%

0.30%

$16,783,131,488

TESLA INC

TSLA

3.05%

2.96%

0.30%

$11,277,389,672

MICROSOFT CORP

MSFT

0.61%

0.61%

0.30%

$10,877,002,079

VISA INC

V

2.32%

2.27%

0.30%

$7,745,958,643

ALIBABA GROUP ADR

BABA

2.73%

2.66%

0.30%

$6,184,941,319

AMAZON.COM INC

AMZN

0.77%

0.77%

0.30%

$5,844,966,916

NVIDIA CORP

NVDA

1.45%

1.43%

0.30%

$5,487,174,812

EXXON MOBIL CORP

XOM

1.20%

1.19%

0.30%

$5,276,948,533

META PLATFORMS INC

META

1.74%

1.71%

0.30%

$4,544,803,270

ALPHABET INC - A

GOOGL

0.86%

0.85%

0.30%

$4,534,929,213

IBM CORP

IBM

3.32%

3.22%

0.30%

$4,240,568,224

HOME DEPOT INC

HD

1.25%

1.23%

0.30%

$3,992,805,917

CHEVRON CORP

CVX

1.20%

1.18%

0.30%

$3,990,749,558

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS

TXN

2.53%

2.47%

0.30%

$3,804,366,855

OCCIDENTAL PETRO

OXY

6.36%

5.98%

0.30%

$3,596,657,484

MODERNA INC

MRNA

4.96%

4.73%

0.30%

$3,336,286,476

NETFLIX INC

NFLX

2.64%

2.57%

0.30%

$3,330,406,927

PFIZER INC

PFE

1.14%

1.13%

0.30%

$3,284,617,846

PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC

PANW

6.80%

6.36%

0.30%

$3,007,393,950

ALPHABET INC - C

GOOG

0.62%

0.62%

0.30%

$2,943,286,253

JPMORGAN CHASE CO

JPM

0.77%

0.76%

0.30%

$2,909,631,322

LOWES COS INC

LOW

2.24%

2.19%

0.30%

$2,723,530,842

BROADCOM INC

AVGO

1.22%

1.20%

0.30%

$2,700,575,666

CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS

CHTR

8.08%

7.48%

0.30%

$2,696,962,716

AMGEN INC

AMGN

1.88%

1.84%

0.30%

$2,646,144,480

Total U.S. Short Interest

-

4.67%

4.22%

0.62%

$884,144,164,960

We have seen increased short selling in TSLA since the end of August.

My image alt text

We have seen 14.21 million shares of new short selling, worth $1.96 billion, in 2022. This is a 31.0% increased in total TSLA shares shorted as its stock price declined by 61.4%. Over the last month we saw a resurgence of short selling after a slight lull in November with 3.78 million new shares shorted, worth $520 million. This was a 4.8% increase in total shares shorted as TSLA’s stock price fell -23.5%. Since Elon Musk announced his Twitter bid on April 14 short sellers have hit overdrive with 8.18 million shares of additional short selling, worth $1.13 billion. An increase of 11.1% in total shares shorted as TSLA’s stock price fell 58.0%.

Tesla has had the ninthlargest increase in shares shorted over the last 30 days:

Name

Ticker

SI % Float

S3 SI % Float

Short Interest

30D Change Shares Shorted

MICROSOFT CORP

MSFT

0.61%

0.61%

$10,877,002,079

$2,147,526,389

APPLE INC

AAPL

0.80%

0.79%

$16,783,131,488

$1,260,839,242

SUNCOR ENERGY

SU

6.31%

5.94%

$2,575,608,284

$925,572,061

EXXON MOBIL CORP

XOM

1.20%

1.19%

$5,276,948,533

$755,348,983

HOME DEPOT INC

HD

1.25%

1.23%

$3,992,805,917

$667,608,145

CHEVRON CORP

CVX

1.20%

1.18%

$3,990,749,558

$626,562,967

S&P GLOBAL INC

SPGI

1.92%

1.88%

$2,075,779,494

$552,471,295

CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD

CNQ

2.74%

2.67%

$1,667,977,241

$536,741,879

TESLA INC

TSLA

3.05%

2.96%

$11,277,389,672

$520,370,557

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS

TXN

2.53%

2.47%

$3,804,366,855

$457,956,469

While the U.S. stocks that had the most short covering over the last 30 days are:

Name

Ticker

SI % Float

S3 SI % Float

Short Interest

30D Change Shares Shorted

ENBRIDGE INC

ENB

1.53%

1.51%

$1,193,626,862

-$1,972,766,152

AMAZON.COM INC

AMZN

0.77%

0.77%

$5,844,966,916

-$743,404,231

BANK OF AMERICA

BAC

0.50%

0.50%

$1,283,430,140

-$850,617,660

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES

AMD

1.85%

1.82%

$1,927,496,030

-$448,178,498

DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC

FANG

4.80%

4.58%

$1,078,355,927

-$458,362,033

GOLDMAN SACHS GRP

GS

1.68%

1.65%

$1,947,887,701

-$422,806,357

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA

RY

1.08%

1.06%

$1,396,194,719

-$515,381,801

VISA INC

V

2.32%

2.27%

$7,745,958,643

-$335,446,730

CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS

CRWD

3.11%

3.02%

$733,386,530

-$253,341,676

BANK OF MONTREAL

BMO

1.54%

1.52%

$930,275,205

-$371,973,244

Short sellers have been backing up their TSLA short exposure for good reason, it is the most profitable short, in dollar value, of 2022. TSLA shorts are up +$15.03 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market profits in 2022, up +78.1% on an average short internet of $19.25 billion. In December, TSLA shorts are up $4.54 billion in month-to-date mark-to-market profits, up +33.2% on an average short interest of $13.67 billion. Since Elon Musk’s Twitter bid on 4/14/22, TSLA shorts are up $13.74 billion in mark-to-market profits, up 77.5% on an average short internet of $17.74 billion.

The most profitable shorts, in dollar terms, for 2022 are:

Name

Ticker

Avg Fee

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

TESLA INC

TSLA

0.33%

$19,251,601,086

$15,031,445,347

78.08%

AMAZON.COM INC

AMZN

0.30%

$10,137,880,102

$6,247,231,206

61.62%

META PLATFORMS INC

META

0.30%

$5,294,744,025

$5,663,514,753

106.96%

APPLE INC

AAPL

0.30%

$16,879,400,734

$5,090,383,084

30.16%

CARVANA CO

CVNA

1.54%

$1,177,205,230

$4,352,987,629

369.77%

BLOCK INC

SQ

0.30%

$3,387,272,822

$4,223,237,663

124.68%

MICROSOFT CORP

MSFT

0.30%

$10,611,378,376

$3,852,619,242

36.31%

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES

AMD

0.30%

$3,805,833,315

$3,570,087,963

93.81%

SEA LTD ADR

SE

0.30%

$1,887,844,382

$3,465,601,081

183.57%

NVIDIA CORP

NVDA

0.30%

$5,525,516,066

$3,360,890,926

60.82%

LUCID GROUP INC

LCID

10.86%

$2,275,231,027

$3,110,375,754

136.71%

RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC

RIVN

1.68%

$1,756,406,358

$2,960,495,767

168.55%

SHOPIFY INC

SHOP

0.30%

$1,835,277,887

$2,935,872,408

159.97%

CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS

CHTR

0.30%

$4,026,606,131

$2,909,865,673

72.27%

WAYFAIR INC

W

0.50%

$1,421,285,478

$2,828,993,144

199.04%

ALPHABET INC - A

GOOGL

0.30%

$5,588,735,765

$2,637,311,749

47.19%

NETFLIX INC

NFLX

0.30%

$2,969,778,863

$2,348,581,175

79.08%

PAYPAL HLDGS INC

PYPL

0.30%

$2,133,642,513

$2,317,298,481

108.61%

S&P GLOBAL INC

SPGI

0.30%

$4,191,470,433

$2,274,231,682

54.26%

COINBASE GLOBAL INC

COIN

2.21%

$1,570,498,658

$2,230,599,545

142.03%

And the least profitable shorts, in dollar terms, for 2022 are:

Name

Ticker

Avg Fee

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

EXXON MOBIL CORP

XOM

0.30%

$3,666,708,098

($1,675,388,764)

-45.69%

OCCIDENTAL PETRO

OXY

0.30%

$3,210,797,207

($1,232,797,807)

-38.40%

CHEVRON CORP

CVX

0.30%

$3,414,298,101

($1,131,168,265)

-33.13%

AMGEN INC

AMGN

0.30%

$4,069,537,968

($885,943,067)

-21.77%

MARATHON PETRO

MPC

0.30%

$1,451,498,880

($721,777,874)

-49.73%

CONOCOPHILLIPS

COP

0.30%

$1,602,691,465

($676,942,273)

-42.24%

MERCK & CO

MRK

0.30%

$1,752,950,761

($636,885,025)

-36.33%

PINDUODUO INC ADR

PDD

0.30%

$1,180,624,341

($628,669,066)

-53.25%

SLB

SLB

0.30%

$1,009,826,854

($608,058,848)

-60.21%

BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB

BMY

0.30%

$2,411,809,421

($538,277,056)

-22.32%

CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP

CHK

0.30%

$1,342,983,680

($531,670,592)

-39.59%

ENPHASE ENERGY

ENPH

0.30%

$976,641,355

($530,542,756)

-54.32%

ELI LILLY & CO

LLY

0.30%

$1,676,280,639

($519,538,330)

-30.99%

TWITTER INC ACQUIRED

N.A.

0.34%

$1,345,925,126

($501,563,117)

-37.27%

VALERO ENERGY CORP

VLO

0.30%

$1,107,741,975

($475,825,872)

-42.95%

MCKESSON CORP

MCK

0.30%

$984,552,693

($434,673,238)

-44.15%

ABBVIE INC

ABBV

0.30%

$2,049,234,384

($418,261,139)

-20.41%

CIGNA CORP

CI

0.30%

$1,062,457,783

($413,549,393)

-38.92%

TMOBILE US INC

TMUS

0.30%

$2,081,298,437

($405,677,673)

-19.49%

ANTERO RESOURCES

AR

0.30%

$747,990,383

($402,067,210)

-53.75%

One of the underlying reasons for TSLA’s price volatility is the makeup of its long shareholders. In addition to having the largest S3 SI % Float of the top three most shorted stocks, TSLA also has the least amount of “passive” institutional long shareholders of the three.

Using the S3 MaP product, which looks market structure, portfolio comparison, holder analytics and security analytics on the long side of the market we can look at the makeup of reported passive long holdings. TSLA ranks 192 in percentage of passive shareholders versus Float for Mega, Large and Mid-Cap stocks.

Rank

Largest Passive Long Shareholders

Ticker

Short Interest ($millions)

S3 SI % Float

Passive Holdings %

1

VICI PROPERTIES INC

VICI

$ 1,384.03

4.17%

81.03%

2

AMPHENOL CORP

APH

$ 380.12

0.84%

77.99%

3

ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC

ROP

$ 455.57

1.01%

77.04%

4

MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC

MCHP

$ 1,061.57

2.69%

75.05%

5

EQUINIX INC

EQIX

$ 1,226.64

2.00%

73.99%

153

MICROSOFT CORP

MSFT

$ 10,877.00

0.61%

56.76%

181

APPLE INC

AAPL

$ 16,783.13

0.79%

49.55%

192

TESLA INC

TSLA

$ 11,277.39

2.96%

36.01%

We characterize Investment Advisors, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Insiders as more “passive” long shareholders while characterizing Hedge Funds (Fundamental, Quant, Multi-Strat, Event Driven, Tech, etc.) and Retail as more “active” long shareholders. The greater the percentage of active long shareholders the more trading volatility and price volatility in a stock.

Related Articles