U.S.\Canada Short Side MTM P\L Recap

Author:

Ihor Dusaniwsky

Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

Matthew Unterman

Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

January 4, 2024

In a year when markets rallied significantly (S&P 500 + 24.2%, Nasdaq +43.4%, Russell 3000 +24.0) short sellers had, as expected, an exceedingly difficult year. U.S.\Canadian short sellers were down -$194.9 billion in 2023 year-to-date mark-to-market losses, down -20.4% on an average short interest of $958 billion. This year’s mark-to-market losses offset two-thirds of last year’s $299.1 billion of short-side mark-to-market profits.

The worst performing sectors on the short-side were Information Technology, (down -$75.7 billion -42.8%) and Consumer Discretionary (-$46.9 billion -30.7%) and only the Utilities sector had a positive return on the short side (+$1.0 billion +4.72%).

Sector

Avg. Short Interest

2023 MTM P\L

P\L %

Communication Services

$66,144,681,088

($17,499,999,529)

-26.46%

Consumer Discretionary

$152,938,468,352

($46,894,635,796)

-30.66%

Consumer Staples

$44,232,402,917

($374,018,445)

-0.85%

Energy

$70,153,861,906

($1,266,040,816)

-1.80%

Financials

$122,263,537,526

($21,861,214,737)

-17.88%

Health Care

$122,729,731,304

($4,919,887,115)

-4.01%

Industrials

$106,544,909,218

($20,839,806,235)

-19.56%

Information Technology

$176,653,369,778

($75,651,519,597)

-42.82%

Materials

$36,604,955,242

($2,924,438,106)

-7.99%

Misc.

$134,760,412

($21,605,933)

-16.03%

Real Estate

$36,931,537,911

($3,727,594,329)

-10.09%

Utilities

$22,194,670,635

$1,048,616,943

4.72%

Total 2023 MTM P\L

$957,526,886,289

($194,932,143,695)

-20.36%

Looking at the biggest winners and losers on the short side in 2023, the most profitable shorts in 2023 were:

US\Can Most Profitable Shorts

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

FIRST REPUBLIC BANK/CA

FRCB US

$194,281,633

$1,631,890,298

839.96%

MODERNA INC

MRNA US

$2,122,021,541

$1,191,330,734

56.14%

SVB FINANCIAL GROUP

SIVBQ US

$218,202,299

$1,061,831,845

486.63%

PFIZER INC

PFE US

$1,794,787,146

$990,401,357

55.18%

PLUG POWER INC

PLUG US

$1,031,597,178

$871,670,693

84.50%

ENPHASE ENERGY

ENPH US

$1,302,873,519

$837,218,191

64.26%

SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES

SEDG US

$777,634,784

$797,231,245

102.52%

MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST INC

MPW US

$971,903,123

$773,655,140

79.60%

EXXON MOBIL CORP

XOM US

$4,626,009,527

$715,983,360

15.48%

JOHNSON & JOHNSON

JNJ US

$2,859,011,626

$667,960,654

23.36%

SIGNATURE BANK NY

SBNY US

$104,029,160

$640,452,369

615.65%

ALBEMARLE CORP

ALB US

$1,328,577,035

$567,968,461

42.75%

NOVOCURE LTD

NVCR US

$378,440,134

$510,019,826

134.77%

BRISTOLMYERS SQUIBB CO

BMY US

$1,489,816,886

$495,694,855

33.27%

LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC

LUMN US

$337,759,808

$489,519,361

144.93%

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP

DG US

$792,014,906

$470,462,162

59.40%

CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INC

CHPT US

$445,217,711

$459,496,748

103.21%

ENBRIDGE INC

ENB US

$1,995,272,362

$446,306,225

22.37%

ETSY INC

ETSY US

$1,185,530,785

$439,531,562

37.07%

NEXTERA ENERGY

NEE US

$1,289,538,420

$425,703,177

33.01%

The least profitable shorts in 2023 were:

US\Can Least Profitable Shorts

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

TESLA INC

TSLA US

$18,915,335,477

($12,246,844,324)

-64.75%

NVIDIA CORP

NVDA US

$10,539,921,263

($11,206,182,987)

-106.32%

APPLE INC

AAPL US

$19,037,660,509

($7,339,111,811)

-38.55%

META PLATFORMS INC

META US

$7,512,180,175

($6,556,480,573)

-87.28%

MICROSOFT CORP

MSFT US

$12,975,441,412

($5,636,292,832)

-43.44%

AMAZON.COM INC

AMZN US

$9,026,294,304

($4,934,108,983)

-54.66%

COINBASE GLOBAL INC

COIN US

$2,285,863,432

($4,190,302,854)

-183.31%

BROADCOM INC

AVGO US

$4,524,232,074

($3,311,992,086)

-73.21%

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES

AMD US

$3,586,185,946

($3,215,634,278)

-89.67%

PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC

PANW US

$4,262,455,047

($3,055,399,568)

-71.68%

ALPHABET INC A

GOOGL US

$5,571,318,674

($2,436,862,833)

-43.74%

CARVANA CO

CVNA US

$959,110,547

($2,175,722,702)

-226.85%

NETFLIX INC

NFLX US

$3,543,518,722

($1,887,435,235)

-53.26%

PINDUODUO INC ADR

PDD US

$2,696,605,013

($1,786,812,223)

-66.26%

ALPHABET INC C

GOOG US

$3,867,030,317

($1,768,554,223)

-45.73%

AFFIRM HLDGS INC

AFRM US

$774,178,697

($1,710,439,163)

-220.94%

UBER TECHNOLOGIES

UBER US

$2,079,770,454

($1,696,496,010)

-81.57%

INTEL CORP

INTC US

$2,297,140,669

($1,670,331,671)

-72.71%

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC

PLTR US

$1,820,760,716

($1,658,950,847)

-91.11%

VISA INC

V US

$7,343,433,399

($1,601,868,235)

-21.81%

Short sellers tended to congregate in many of the same securities and sectors which led to a substantial proportion of dollars bet on the side short being unprofitable as the larger cap names rallied in 2023. But, surprisingly, there were almost as many stocks that were profitable shorts versus unprofitable shorts.

73% of every dollar shorted produced negative returns, with only the Consumer Staples, Energy, and Utilities sectors having more short interest with positive returns than negative returns.

Dollars Shorted

Profitable

Unprofitable

Communication Services

23%

77%

Consumer Discretionary

21%

79%

Consumer Staples

55%

45%

Energy

52%

48%

Financials

22%

78%

Health Care

42%

58%

Industrials

21%

79%

Information Technology

9%

91%

Materials

34%

66%

Misc.

5%

95%

Real Estate

27%

73%

Utilities

67%

33%

Total

27%

73%

But when looking at the number of shorted stocks with profitable versus unprofitable returns the results were much closer. 43% of all shorted stocks were profitable, 5% had flat returns and 52% of all shorted stocks were unprofitable. The Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Materials and Utilities sectors actually had more shorted stocks with positive returns than negative returns.

Number of Shorted Stocks

Profitable

Flat

Unprofitable

Communication Services

47%

7%

46%

Consumer Discretionary

41%

4%

55%

Consumer Staples

50%

5%

45%

Energy

47%

5%

48%

Financials

41%

4%

55%

Health Care

52%

3%

45%

Industrials

37%

4%

59%

Information Technology

41%

5%

54%

Materials

48%

7%

45%

Misc.

27%

4%

69%

Real Estate

44%

5%

51%

Utilities

50%

5%

45%

Total

43%

5%

52%

Even though there was a 43% chance to short a profitable stock, short sellers crowded into more of the unprofitable names and only 27% of their dollars shorted produced positive returns. This is exemplified by the fact that only four out of twelve sectors had a larger “most-profitable” trade than “unprofitable trade”.

The top five most profitable versus unprofitable stocks by sector are:

Consumer Svcs. Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC

LUMN US

$337,759,808

$489,519,361

144.93%

DISH NETWORK CORP

Acquired

$354,237,253

$341,769,956

96.48%

BILIBILI INC ADR

BILI US

$361,234,610

$227,161,350

62.88%

ZOOMINFO TECHNOLOGIES

ZI US

$284,495,090

$158,925,682

55.86%

PARAMOUNT GLOBAL B

PARA US

$1,433,474,677

$149,587,491

10.44%

Consumer Svcs. Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

META PLATFORMS INC

META US

$7,512,180,175

($6,556,480,573)

-87.28%

ALPHABET INC A

GOOGL US

$5,571,318,674

($2,436,862,833)

-43.74%

NETFLIX INC

NFLX US

$3,543,518,722

($1,887,435,235)

-53.26%

ALPHABET INC C

GOOG US

$3,867,030,317

($1,768,554,223)

-45.73%

ROKU INC

ROKU US

$774,251,967

($571,758,138)

-73.85%

Consumer Svcs. 2023 YTD P\L

$66,144,681,088

($17,499,999,529)

-26.46%

Consumer Disc. Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

ETSY INC

ETSY US

$1,185,530,785

$439,531,562

37.07%

JD.COM INC ADR

JD US

$798,711,978

$405,081,064

50.72%

FISKER INC

FSR US

$399,712,615

$341,938,140

85.55%

LUCID GROUP INC

LCID US

$1,164,067,772

$290,643,118

24.97%

ADVANCE AUTO PARTS

AAP US

$338,123,154

$260,609,976

77.08%

Consumer Disc. Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

TESLA INC

TSLA US

$18,915,335,477

($12,246,844,324)

-64.75%

AMAZON.COM INC

AMZN US

$9,026,294,304

($4,934,108,983)

-54.66%

CARVANA CO

CVNA US

$959,110,547

($2,175,722,702)

-226.85%

PINDUODUO INC ADR

PDD US

$2,696,605,013

($1,786,812,223)

-66.26%

ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES

RCL US

$1,651,984,710

($1,447,415,366)

-87.62%

Consumer Disc. 2023 YTD P\L

$152,938,468,352

($46,894,635,796)

-30.66%

Consumer Staples Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP

DG US

$792,014,906

$470,462,162

59.40%

WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE

WBA US

$1,061,180,810

$353,316,404

33.29%

GENERAL MILLS INC

GIS US

$989,421,933

$266,805,447

26.97%

ESTEE LAUDER COS

EL US

$597,773,883

$255,335,917

42.71%

CAMPBELL SOUP CO

CPB US

$650,139,638

$191,319,483

29.43%

Consumer Staples Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

COSTCO WHOLESALE

COST US

$2,201,286,953

($926,508,467)

-42.09%

CELCIUS HOLDINGS

CELH US

$1,420,326,185

($638,412,352)

-44.95%

SPROUTS FARMERS MARKET

SFM US

$662,603,073

($291,522,750)

-44.00%

FRESHPET INC

FRPT US

$449,025,092

($235,595,013)

-52.47%

DOLLAR TREE INC

DLTR US

$982,965,775

($223,719,047)

-22.76%

Consumer Staples 2023 YTD P\L

$44,232,402,917

($374,018,445)

-0.85%

Energy Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

EXXON MOBIL CORP

XOM US

$4,626,009,527

$715,983,360

15.48%

ENBRIDGE INC

ENB US

$1,995,272,362

$446,306,225

22.37%

CHEVRON CORP

CVX US

$2,897,371,042

$405,033,218

13.98%

ENVIVA INC

EVA US

$108,566,768

$333,981,883

307.63%

DEVON ENERGY CORP

DVN US

$670,680,260

$209,393,822

31.22%

Energy Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

CAMECO CORP

CCJ US

$631,793,187

($413,015,876)

-65.37%

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

MPC US

$1,520,994,774

($379,606,603)

-24.96%

PHILLIPS 66

PSX US

$1,018,757,813

($271,927,480)

-26.69%

CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES

CNQ US

$2,426,042,430

($267,947,059)

-11.04%

TRANSOCEAN LTD

RIG US

$913,657,170

($237,961,404)

-26.04%

Energy 2023 YTD P\L

$70,153,861,906

($1,266,040,816)

-1.80%

Financials Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

FIRST REPUBLIC BANK/CA

FRCB US

$194,281,633

$1,631,890,298

839.96%

SVB FINANCIAL GROUP

SIVBQ US

$218,202,299

$1,061,831,845

486.63%

SIGNATURE BANK NY

SBNY US

$104,029,160

$640,452,369

615.65%

SILVERGATE CAPITAL CORP

SICP US

$58,047,764

$318,874,617

549.33%

FIRST HORIZON NATL

FHN US

$333,652,404

$302,613,688

90.70%

Financials Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

COINBASE GLOBAL INC

COIN US

$2,285,863,432

($4,190,302,854)

-183.31%

AFFIRM HLDGS INC

AFRM US

$774,178,697

($1,710,439,163)

-220.94%

VISA INC

V US

$7,343,433,399

($1,601,868,235)

-21.81%

BLACKSTONE GRP LP

BX US

$2,337,412,291

($1,272,012,465)

-54.42%

UPSTART HOLDINGS INC

UPST US

$742,305,056

($963,950,481)

-129.86%

Financials 2023 YTD P\L

$122,263,537,526

($21,861,214,737)

-17.88%

Health Care Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

MODERNA INC

MRNA US

$2,122,021,541

$1,191,330,734

56.14%

PFIZER INC

PFE US

$1,794,787,146

$990,401,357

55.18%

JOHNSON & JOHNSON

JNJ US

$2,859,011,626

$667,960,654

23.36%

NOVOCURE LTD

NVCR US

$378,440,134

$510,019,826

134.77%

BRISTOLMYERS SQUIBB CO

BMY US

$1,489,816,886

$495,694,855

33.27%

Health Care Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

ELI LILLY CO

LLY US

$2,688,023,933

($1,315,805,806)

-48.95%

IMMUNOGEN INC

IMGN US

$288,610,223

($752,335,037)

-260.68%

REATA PHARMACEUTICALS

Acquired

$446,025,471

($708,737,597)

-158.90%

CYTOKINETICS INC

CYTK US

$410,341,034

($612,915,428)

-149.37%

BRIDGEBIO PHARMA INC

BBIO US

$333,070,725

($522,572,095)

-156.90%

Health Care 2023 YTD P\L

$122,729,731,304

($4,919,887,115)

-4.01%

Industrials Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

PLUG POWER INC

PLUG US

$1,031,597,178

$871,670,693

84.50%

CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INC

CHPT US

$445,217,711

$459,496,748

103.21%

SUNPOWER CORP

SPWR US

$182,723,490

$251,474,022

137.63%

3M CO

MMM US

$1,197,122,621

$217,986,039

18.21%

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE B

UPS US

$1,860,030,552

$183,299,269

9.85%

Industrials Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

UBER TECHNOLOGIES

UBER US

$2,079,770,454

($1,696,496,010)

-81.57%

SAIA INC

SAIA US

$980,600,939

($819,607,842)

-83.58%

UNITED RENTALS INC

URI US

$1,316,209,179

($776,799,134)

-59.02%

BOEING COMPANY

BA US

$1,803,690,417

($771,665,016)

-42.78%

WATSCO INC

WSO US

$1,411,176,012

($715,532,848)

-50.70%

Industrials 2023 YTD P\L

$106,544,909,218

($20,839,806,235)

-19.56%

Info Tech Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

ENPHASE ENERGY

ENPH US

$1,302,873,519

$837,218,191

64.26%

SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES

SEDG US

$777,634,784

$797,231,245

102.52%

WOLFSPEED INC

WOLF US

$895,058,868

$358,065,593

40.00%

HUT 8 CORP

HUT CN

$33,162,478

$344,495,227

1038.81%

BILL.COM HOLDINGS INC

BILL US

$745,877,544

$138,299,283

18.54%

Info Tech Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

NVIDIA CORP

NVDA US

$10,539,921,263

($11,206,182,987)

-106.32%

APPLE INC

AAPL US

$19,037,660,509

($7,339,111,811)

-38.55%

MICROSOFT CORP

MSFT US

$12,975,441,412

($5,636,292,832)

-43.44%

BROADCOM INC

AVGO US

$4,524,232,074

($3,311,992,086)

-73.21%

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES

AMD US

$3,586,185,946

($3,215,634,278)

-89.67%

Information Tech 2023 YTD P\L

$176,653,369,778

($75,651,519,597)

-42.82%

Materials Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

ALBEMARLE CORP

ALB US

$1,328,577,035

$567,968,461

42.75%

FMC CORP

FMC US

$213,844,205

$142,762,599

66.76%

NEWMONT CORP

NEM US

$906,714,459

$140,463,825

15.49%

FRANCO-NEVADA CORP

FNV US

$499,231,192

$108,965,816

21.83%

NUTRIEN LTD

NTR US

$393,436,169

$107,237,585

27.26%

Materials Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

U.S. STEEL CORP

X US

$472,713,387

($351,142,937)

-74.28%

CELANESE CORP

CE US

$612,556,591

($328,533,332)

-53.63%

LINDE PLC

LIN US

$1,287,963,840

($324,647,672)

-25.21%

CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC

CLF US

$641,044,630

($261,523,510)

-40.80%

NUCOR CORP

NUE US

$914,245,239

($251,818,073)

-27.54%

Materials 2023 YTD P\L

$36,604,955,242

($2,924,438,106)

-7.99%

Misc. (SPAC) Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

GX ACQ CORP II

Unlisted

$372,353

$297,566

79.92%

EVO ACQ CORP

Unlisted

$318,287

$160,298

50.36%

PMV CONSUMER ACQ CORP

PMVC US

$106,720

$129,385

121.24%

TLG ACQ ONE CORP

Unlisted

$132,885

$107,311

80.76%

MOUNT RAINIER ACQ CORP

Delisted

$91,936

$61,955

67.39%

Misc. (SPAC) Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

DIGITAL WORLD ACQ CORP

DWAC US

$35,046,529

($12,948,356)

-36.95%

EDTECHX HOLDINGS ACQ CORP II

Unlisted

$672,221

($2,795,652)

-415.88%

ARES ACQ CORP

Unlisted

$1,497,148

($728,014)

-48.63%

MINORITY EQUALITY OPPORTUNITIES ACQ

Unlisted

$719,685

($400,513)

-55.65%

DIGITAL WORLD ACQ CORP WARRANT

DWACW US

$193,854

($374,837)

-193.36%

Misc. (SPAC) 2023 YTD P\L

$134,760,412

($21,605,933)

-16.03%

Real Estate Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST INC

MPW US

$971,903,123

$773,655,140

79.60%

WEWORK INC

WEWKQ US

$40,542,084

$124,929,304

308.15%

WP CAREY INC

WPC US

$423,997,433

$96,655,326

22.80%

EXTRA SPACE STORAGE

EXR US

$1,021,955,588

$82,970,794

8.12%

CROWN CASTLE INTL CORP

CCI US

$516,032,509

$68,690,733

13.31%

Real Estate Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC

DLR US

$1,706,076,254

($570,258,237)

-33.43%

ZILLOW GROUP INC C

Z US

$858,307,319

($529,963,024)

-61.75%

WELLTOWER INC

WELL US

$908,088,391

($263,186,936)

-28.98%

IRON MOUNTAIN INC

IRM US

$750,532,647

($250,759,106)

-33.41%

OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC

OPEN US

$188,902,765

($250,319,419)

-132.51%

Real Estate 2023 YTD P\L

$36,931,537,911

($3,727,594,329)

-10.09%

Utilities Most Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

NEXTERA ENERGY INC

NEE US

$1,289,538,420

$425,703,177

33.01%

NEXTERA ENERGY PARTNERS LP

NEP US

$208,105,861

$144,761,323

69.56%

EVERSOURCE ENERGY

ES US

$316,005,447

$93,713,450

29.66%

AES CORP

AES US

$297,935,119

$87,590,098

29.40%

DOMINION ENERGY

D US

$367,667,595

$83,227,220

22.64%

Utilities Least Profitable

Ticker

Avg Short Interest

YTD MTM P\L

P\L %

NRG ENERGY INC

NRG US

$522,948,695

($268,221,966)

-51.29%

CONSTELLATION ENERGY CORP

CEG US

$613,331,177

($237,601,419)

-38.74%

VISTRA ENERGY CORP

VST US

$291,993,416

($164,488,719)

-56.33%

PG&E CORP

PCG US

$890,592,564

($90,842,622)

-10.20%

EDISON INTL

EIX US

$498,189,095

($62,397,121)

-12.52%

Utilities 2023 YTD P\L

$22,194,670,635

$1,048,616,943

4.72%

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