U.S. Listed China\H.K. Stocks Getting Squeezier

    Author:

    Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

    October 1, 2024

    China has been actively injecting fiscal stimulus into their economy in order to slow and hopefully reverse falling property values, support the markets and stabilize economic confidence. As a result the CSI 300 Index is up +27.2% since its September 13th year-to-date low. Surprisingly, even with the broad rally in U.S. listed China\H.K. stocks, we have not seen a rush of short covering as short sellers incur mark-to-market losses. Just over 50% of U.S. listed China\H.K. short interest is comprised by just three online marketplace securities, and the top twenty shorts are:

    U.S. Listed China\H.K. Short Interest

    Ticker

    SI % Float

    Short Interest

    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

    BABA US

    2.74%

    $6,978,508,236

    PDD Holdings Inc

    PDD US

    2.27%

    $4,125,236,366

    JD.com Inc

    JD US

    2.36%

    $1,346,110,838

    NIO Inc

    NIO US

    8.65%

    $1,120,130,880

    Baidu Inc

    BIDU US

    3.19%

    $958,715,504

    Li Auto Inc

    LI US

    3.43%

    $762,455,714

    Trip.com Group Ltd

    TCOM US

    1.67%

    $668,962,584

    KE Holdings Inc

    BEKE US

    2.61%

    $600,653,038

    XPeng Inc

    XPEV US

    5.10%

    $476,675,925

    Yum China Holdings Inc

    YUMC US

    2.88%

    $476,494,023

    BeiGene Ltd

    BGNE US

    2.18%

    $470,583,492

    New Oriental Education & Techn

    EDU US

    3.38%

    $427,513,704

    Futu Holdings Ltd

    FUTU US

    4.92%

    $410,856,881

    NetEase Inc

    NTES US

    0.68%

    $409,823,790

    Bilibili Inc

    BILI US

    5.24%

    $404,938,375

    H World Group Ltd

    HTHT US

    3.35%

    $400,230,531

    ZTO Express Cayman Inc

    ZTO US

    2.35%

    $348,072,585

    TAL Education Group

    TAL US

    5.69%

    $322,866,415

    Tencent Music Entertainment Gr

    TME US

    2.85%

    $298,537,226

    Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd

    YMM US

    3.75%

    $295,213,483

    Total Sector

    3.53%

    $24,478,251,515

    Shorting U.S. listed China\H.K. stocks has been very active in 2024 with total short interest increasing by $5.6 billion, or +30%. This increase is made up of $4.6 billion in increased short selling coupled with a $1.0 increase in the value of shares shorted. Alibaba Group (BABA) and JD.com Inc had the largest increase of short selling in the sector.

    U.S. Listed China\H.K. Short Interest

    Ticker

    YTD Change

    YTD Shares Shorted

    YTD Ch MTM

    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

    BABA US

    $4,257,873,054

    $3,253,649,411

    $1,004,223,644

    PDD Holdings Inc

    PDD US

    ($297,460,793)

    $50,164,150

    ($347,624,943)

    JD.com Inc

    JD US

    $694,067,987

    $443,316,973

    $250,751,015

    NIO Inc

    NIO US

    ($387,377,912)

    $9,859,794

    ($397,237,705)

    Baidu Inc

    BIDU US

    $384,605,241

    $451,132,397

    ($66,527,156)

    Li Auto Inc

    LI US

    ($432,882,003)

    ($56,684,373)

    ($376,197,631)

    Trip.com Group Ltd

    TCOM US

    $362,746,724

    $163,591,599

    $199,155,124

    KE Holdings Inc

    BEKE US

    $140,581,061

    $35,567,703

    $105,013,358

    XPeng Inc

    XPEV US

    ($311,744,900)

    ($181,512,269)

    ($130,232,630)

    Yum China Holdings Inc

    YUMC US

    $151,871,130

    $132,055,591

    $19,815,540

    BeiGene Ltd

    BGNE US

    $140,085,154

    $59,182,882

    $80,902,272

    New Oriental Education & Techn

    EDU US

    $83,349,860

    $71,326,620

    $12,023,240

    Futu Holdings Ltd

    FUTU US

    $144,559,450

    ($55,395,226)

    $199,954,676

    NetEase Inc

    NTES US

    ($140,397,150)

    ($142,464,368)

    $2,067,218

    Bilibili Inc

    BILI US

    $142,159,026

    ($99,891,635)

    $242,050,661

    H World Group Ltd

    HTHT US

    $83,733,605

    $48,146,622

    $35,586,983

    ZTO Express Cayman Inc

    ZTO US

    $2,837,675

    ($53,782,162)

    $56,619,837

    TAL Education Group

    TAL US

    ($72,313,933)

    ($47,595,617)

    ($24,718,316)

    Tencent Music Entertainment Gr

    TME US

    $169,199,649

    $125,560,774

    $43,638,875

    Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd

    YMM US

    $94,525,118

    $37,267,379

    $57,257,739

    Total Sector

    $5,634,442,612

    $4,610,330,193

    $1,024,112,420

    Prior to the recent rally short sellers were profitably building their positions in a falling market but since the market low on 9/13 we have seen short selling slow substantially. As the market rallied the value of shares shorted in the sector increased by $5.8 billion and new short selling slowed to just $132 million.

    Even though short sellers were taking massive mark-to-market losses on their positions there was selective short covering and even some new short selling in different stocks in the sector. BABA continue to see increased short selling while PDD saw large short covering.

    U.S. Listed China\H.K. Short Interest

    Ticker

    9/13 Change

    9/13 Shares Shorted

    9/13 Ch MTM

    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

    BABA US

    $1,851,126,886

    $613,814,002

    $1,237,312,884

    PDD Holdings Inc

    PDD US

    $792,922,011

    ($490,291,173)

    $1,283,213,184

    JD.com Inc

    JD US

    $421,529,745

    ($41,628,161)

    $463,157,906

    NIO Inc

    NIO US

    $183,575,622

    ($64,753,422)

    $248,329,044

    Baidu Inc

    BIDU US

    $221,170,714

    $35,007,979

    $186,162,735

    Li Auto Inc

    LI US

    $224,842,452

    $32,064,810

    $192,777,643

    Trip.com Group Ltd

    TCOM US

    $148,463,433

    $12,205,377

    $136,258,055

    KE Holdings Inc

    BEKE US

    $166,871,240

    ($34,858,051)

    $201,729,291

    XPeng Inc

    XPEV US

    $120,166,793

    ($27,069,003)

    $147,235,796

    Yum China Holdings Inc

    YUMC US

    $125,721,704

    $17,163,920

    $108,557,784

    BeiGene Ltd

    BGNE US

    $60,596,934

    $1,606,594

    $58,990,339

    New Oriental Education & Techn

    EDU US

    $74,275,150

    ($22,656,217)

    $96,931,367

    Futu Holdings Ltd

    FUTU US

    $166,286,949

    $163,179

    $166,123,770

    NetEase Inc

    NTES US

    $85,978,563

    $17,458,319

    $68,520,244

    Bilibili Inc

    BILI US

    $120,205,274

    ($27,057,721)

    $147,262,994

    H World Group Ltd

    HTHT US

    $78,992,158

    ($15,713,318)

    $94,705,476

    ZTO Express Cayman Inc

    ZTO US

    $33,207,807

    ($6,597,737)

    $39,805,544

    TAL Education Group

    TAL US

    $106,872,938

    ($7,969,658)

    $114,842,596

    Tencent Music Entertainment Gr

    TME US

    $50,324,345

    ($8,228,439)

    $58,552,784

    Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd

    YMM US

    $66,207,692

    $7,839,925

    $58,367,767

    Total Sector

    $5,888,385,923

    $131,514,515

    $5,756,871,408

    Short sellers were up $3.7 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market profits prior to 9/13 but are now down -$3.2 billion for the year after incurring -$6.9 billion in mark-to-market losses as the CSI 300 rallied +27%.

    BABA and JD are the most unprofitable trades on the short side for the year while NIO, LI, XPEV and PDD short sellers are still profitable for the year.

    Mark-To-Market P\L

    Ticker

    9/13 MTM P\L

    P\L %

    YTD MTM P\L

    P\L %

    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

    BABA US

    ($1,701,881,078)

    -28.53%

    ($2,121,756,668)

    -55.92%

    PDD Holdings Inc

    PDD US

    ($1,454,936,053)

    -42.31%

    $136,457,888

    3.52%

    JD.com Inc

    JD US

    ($542,742,236)

    -50.46%

    ($484,453,793)

    -58.42%

    NIO Inc

    NIO US

    ($220,175,441)

    -23.89%

    $349,437,307

    38.36%

    Baidu Inc

    BIDU US

    ($220,668,929)

    -27.46%

    ($3,606,676)

    -0.57%

    Li Auto Inc

    LI US

    ($259,472,736)

    -40.26%

    $285,374,151

    36.93%

    Trip.com Group Ltd

    TCOM US

    ($154,988,791)

    -27.42%

    ($246,489,034)

    -49.35%

    KE Holdings Inc

    BEKE US

    ($267,098,334)

    -55.35%

    ($191,973,802)

    -47.03%

    XPeng Inc

    XPEV US

    ($143,448,647)

    -35.25%

    $147,535,711

    33.47%

    Yum China Holdings Inc

    YUMC US

    ($120,113,731)

    -30.60%

    ($42,466,534)

    -11.50%

    BeiGene Ltd

    BGNE US

    ($58,827,634)

    -14.07%

    ($87,312,111)

    -28.34%

    New Oriental Education & Techn

    EDU US

    ($99,729,374)

    -26.68%

    ($24,116,820)

    -5.75%

    Futu Holdings Ltd

    FUTU US

    ($198,353,548)

    -66.07%

    ($199,033,819)

    -83.85%

    NetEase Inc

    NTES US

    ($77,375,166)

    -21.57%

    ($34,431,143)

    -7.87%

    Bilibili Inc

    BILI US

    ($196,890,912)

    -62.10%

    ($274,470,008)

    -99.18%

    H World Group Ltd

    HTHT US

    ($104,827,816)

    -30.17%

    ($43,546,290)

    -13.15%

    ZTO Express Cayman Inc

    ZTO US

    ($46,037,499)

    -15.17%

    ($47,713,821)

    -13.76%

    TAL Education Group

    TAL US

    ($122,441,307)

    -51.19%

    $7,858,387

    2.90%

    Tencent Music Entertainment Gr

    TME US

    ($76,925,166)

    -30.05%

    ($87,770,990)

    -31.69%

    Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd

    YMM US

    ($68,342,501)

    -26.72%

    ($78,825,616)

    -27.22%

    Total Sector

    ($6,882,807,644)

    -33.53%

    ($3,186,236,816)

    -17.40%

    As a result of these large mark-to-market losses U.S. listed China\H.K. stocks are becoming more squeezable. While these shorts are less crowded than the average U.S. listed stock with a 28.27 S3 Crowded score versus the U.S. average Crowded Score of 33.71.

    These stocks are also becoming significantly more squeezable with an average S3 Squeeze score of 69.37 versus the U.S. average of 36.77.

    Crowded & Squeeze Scores

    Ticker

    Crowded Score

    Squeeze Score

    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

    BABA US

    32.50

    72.50

    PDD Holdings Inc

    PDD US

    25.00

    75.00

    JD.com Inc

    JD US

    22.50

    72.50

    NIO Inc

    NIO US

    47.50

    97.50

    Baidu Inc

    BIDU US

    27.50

    57.50

    Li Auto Inc

    LI US

    32.50

    72.50

    Trip.com Group Ltd

    TCOM US

    17.50

    47.50

    KE Holdings Inc

    BEKE US

    22.50

    72.50

    XPeng Inc

    XPEV US

    27.50

    67.50

    Yum China Holdings Inc

    YUMC US

    20.00

    60.00

    BeiGene Ltd

    BGNE US

    30.00

    60.00

    New Oriental Education & Techn

    EDU US

    25.00

    55.00

    Futu Holdings Ltd

    FUTU US

    20.00

    70.00

    NetEase Inc

    NTES US

    17.50

    47.50

    Bilibili Inc

    BILI US

    22.50

    82.50

    H World Group Ltd

    HTHT US

    30.00

    60.00

    ZTO Express Cayman Inc

    ZTO US

    22.50

    52.50

    TAL Education Group

    TAL US

    30.00

    80.00

    Tencent Music Entertainment Gr

    TME US

    15.00

    45.00

    Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd

    YMM US

    25.00

    55.00

    Total Sector

    28.27

    69.37

    U.S. Average

    33.71

    36.77

    The most squeezable U.S. listed China\H.K. stocks are NIO, BILI, and TAL with PDD, BABA, JD, LI, BEKE, and FUTU not far behind.

    If the Chinese market continues to rally, we should expect a significant amount of short covering in the sector pushing stock prices even higher. BABA’s stock price might see the greatest impact if shorts begin covering in size as the stock has seen increased short selling into this rally. With short selling no longer offsetting some of the long buying pressure in the stock, buy-to-covers side-by-side with long buying may steepen the trajectory if its price moves.

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